Geopolitical risks and financial stress in emerging economies

We investigate the impacts of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on financial stress (FS) in major emerging economies between 1985 and 2019. Applying a recently developed panel quantile estimation method, we show that GPRs pose serious risks to the stability of the financial condition in emerging economies. Namely, when FS is already equal to or above average, GPRs intensify this instability to a remarkable degree. In contrast, GPRs do not ignite the stress when the financial situation is benign. In emerging economies, foreign exchange markets, and to a lesser extent, the banking industry, and the debt market suffer more severe consequences of geopolitical tensions than the stock market. In contrast, advanced economies, represented by the Group of Seven (G7) economies, have witnessed detrimental consequences of GPRs on their stock markets but negligible effects on other parts of their financial systems.

Author: Tam; Deniz, NguyenHuu; Karaman Orsal
Volume: 2022.09
Publisher: INFER
Year: 2022
No. of pages: 40
Working papers