Downside risk and flight to quality in the currency market
Some currencies systematically crash together with the stock market, while others serve as a „safe haven‟. This paper studies which country macroeconomic fundamentals are consistently related to the riskiness of its currency. I look at various macroeconomic variables and find that high real interest rates in a country are associated with high downside risk of its currency, while inflation rate, nominal interest rate and other variables are not that relevant. But to be a „safe haven‟ currency, both low real interest rate and low inflation rate are required. I suggest that there is a „flight to quality‟ in the currency market when the stock market goes down.
| Author: | Victoria , Dobrynskaya |
| Volume: | 2011.5 |
| Publisher: | INFER |
| Year: | 2011 |
| No. of pages: | 22 |
| Category: |
Working papers